{"query": "P(ill |  ) = (.9·.01)/(.9·.01   .05·.99) ≈ 0.154", "count": 20, "results": [{"id": "card_theory_bayes_theorem", "title": "Bayes' theorem", "shelf": "theories", "surface": "secular", "snippet": "Bayes' theorem — an engine domain that can touch it: probability. Calibration: seals. P(H|E) = P(E|H)·P(H) / P(E). How to update a belief when evidence arrives: posterior ∝ likelihood × prior. A trivi", "authority_tier": "reference", "source": "The Theory Assay — calibrated, not judged (docs/THEORY_CATALOG.md)", "readable": false, "generated": false}, {"id": "card_src_frd_cambodia", "title": "Cambodia: A Country Study", "shelf": "countries", "surface": "secular", "snippet": "The previous edition of Cambodia: A Country Study was compiled in 1972 when the ill-fated Khmer Republic (see Appendix B) was fighting for its life against the Khmer Rouge (see Appendix B). In the one", "authority_tier": "reference", "source": "Cambodia: A Country Study — Federal Research Division, Library of Congress (1990) (public domain)", "readable": true, "generated": false}, {"id": "card_sanitation_boundary", "title": "The sanitation shelf — reference, not a substitute for a health authority", "shelf": "sanitation", "surface": "secular", "snippet": "THE SANITATION SHELF — what this is, and is not. These cards gather established public-health and field-hygiene practice from PUBLIC-DOMAIN sources: WHO WASH guidance, CDC / Ready.gov, and US Army fie", "authority_tier": "reference", "source": "The boundary", "readable": false, "generated": false}, {"id": "card_works_bayes", "title": "The base rate a doctor must not forget", "shelf": "the-works", "surface": "secular", "snippet": "A disease affects 1 in 100. A test is 90% sensitive and has a 5% false-positive rate. A positive result feels alarming — yet Bayes' theorem shows the chance of actually being ill is only about 15%. Th", "authority_tier": "verified", "source": "The Works — worked & sealed", "readable": false, "generated": false}, {"id": "card_principle_napoleon_bonaparte_dac01009ff", "title": "Napoleon Bonaparte: A general-in-chief has no right to shelter his mistakes in war under cover of his sovereign, or of a minister,", "shelf": "strategy", "surface": "secular", "snippet": "A general-in-chief has no right to shelter his mistakes in war under cover of his sovereign, or of a minister, when these are both distant from the scene of operation, and must consequently be either ", "authority_tier": "primary", "source": "Napoleon Bonaparte, The Officer's Manual: Napoleon's Maxims of War (tr. D'Aguilar) (1831) — Project Gutenberg #50750, public domain", "readable": true, "generated": false}, {"id": "card_n_86667dda2aff", "title": "Now Thank We All Our God", "shelf": "hymns", "surface": "witness", "snippet": "Now thank we all our God,\nWith heart and hands and voices,\nWho wondrous things hath done,\nIn whom His world rejoices;\nWho from our mothers' arms\nHath blessed us on our way\nWith countless gifts of love", "authority_tier": "external_aligned", "source": "Martin Rinkart (1636)", "readable": false, "generated": false}, {"id": "card_n_46ede65e389e", "title": "A Mighty Fortress Is Our God", "shelf": "hymns", "surface": "witness", "snippet": "A mighty fortress is our God,\nA bulwark never failing;\nOur helper He, amid the flood\nOf mortal ills prevailing:\nFor still our ancient foe\nDoth seek to work us woe;\nHis craft and power are great,\nAnd, ", "authority_tier": "external_aligned", "source": "Martin Luther (1529)", "readable": false, "generated": false}, {"id": "card_tool_interlibrary_loan_ill", "title": "Interlibrary Loan (ILL) — free find", "shelf": "access", "surface": "secular", "snippet": "Interlibrary Loan (ILL): Ask your library to borrow a book or article from another library for you — usually free. Almost anything can be gotten this way.  How it's free & legal: library cooperation. ", "authority_tier": "reference", "source": "Interlibrary Loan (ILL)", "readable": false, "generated": false}, {"id": "card_src_frd_chad", "title": "Chad: A Country Study", "shelf": "countries", "surface": "secular", "snippet": "Foreign Affairs: Since independence, external affairs governed by France, Chad’s colonizer, and Libya, aggressive neighbor to north. Relations with France have wavered, but in late 1980s France provid", "authority_tier": "reference", "source": "Chad: A Country Study — Federal Research Division, Library of Congress (1990) (public domain)", "readable": true, "generated": false}, {"id": "card_src_pd_practicalmechani00zerb", "title": "Practical mechanics for boys, in language which every boy can understand, and so arranged that he may readily carry out any work from the instructions given, with many original ill", "shelf": "practical", "surface": "secular", "snippet": "Practical mechanics for boys, in language which every boy can understand, and so arranged that he may readily carry out any work from the instructions given, with many original illustrations (1914). A", "authority_tier": "reference", "source": "public domain (copyright expired)", "readable": true, "generated": false}, {"id": "card_src_pron_ills", "title": "ills", "shelf": "pronunciation", "surface": "secular", "snippet": "ills: pronounced (ARPABET) IH1 L Z. From the CMU Pronouncing Dictionary — the standard machine-readable pronunciations of North American English.", "authority_tier": "reference", "source": "CMU Pronouncing Dictionary (cmudict) — BSD-2-Clause, Carnegie Mellon", "readable": false, "generated": false}, {"id": "card_src_pron_ill", "title": "ill", "shelf": "pronunciation", "surface": "secular", "snippet": "ill: pronounced (ARPABET) IH1 L. From the CMU Pronouncing Dictionary — the standard machine-readable pronunciations of North American English.", "authority_tier": "reference", "source": "CMU Pronouncing Dictionary (cmudict) — BSD-2-Clause, Carnegie Mellon", "readable": false, "generated": false}, {"id": "card_c_8200ec7c0a97", "title": "La Rochefoucauld 264: Pity is often a reflection of our own evils in the ills of others. references Chapter", "shelf": "connections", "surface": null, "snippet": "Mentions Chapter (person) — the name appears in the card text; the entry is Easton's Bible Dictionary (public domain), which classifies it as a person.", "authority_tier": "engine_derived", "source": "Name mention (Easton's Bible Dictionary, PD)", "readable": false, "generated": false}, {"id": "card_src_etym_ill", "title": "ill", "shelf": "etymology", "surface": "secular", "snippet": "ill: etymology (Webster 1913) — [OE. ill, ille, Icel. illr; akin to Sw. illa, adv., Dan. ilde, adv.]. From Webster's Revised Unabridged Dictionary (1913), public domain.", "authority_tier": "reference", "source": "Webster's Revised Unabridged Dictionary (1913), Project Gutenberg eBook #29765 — public domain", "readable": true, "generated": false}, {"id": "card_src_etym_malapert", "title": "malapert", "shelf": "etymology", "surface": "secular", "snippet": "malapert: etymology (Webster 1913) — a.: [OF. malapert unskillful, ill-taught, ill-bred; mal ill + apert open, adroit, intelligent, L. apertus, p. p. of aperire to open. See Malice, and Aperient.]. Fr", "authority_tier": "reference", "source": "Webster's Revised Unabridged Dictionary (1913), Project Gutenberg eBook #29765 — public domain", "readable": true, "generated": false}, {"id": "card_src_etym_sick", "title": "sick", "shelf": "etymology", "surface": "secular", "snippet": "sick: etymology (Webster 1913) — a.: [OE. sek, sik, ill, AS. seóc; akin to OS. siok, seoc, OFries. siak, D. ziek, G. siech, OHG. sioh, Icel. sj, Sw. sjuk, Dan. syg, Goth. siuks ill, siukan to be ill.]", "authority_tier": "reference", "source": "Webster's Revised Unabridged Dictionary (1913), Project Gutenberg eBook #29765 — public domain", "readable": true, "generated": false}, {"id": "card_src_etym_maledicent", "title": "maledicent", "shelf": "etymology", "surface": "secular", "snippet": "maledicent: etymology (Webster 1913) — a.: [L. maledicens, p. pr. of maledicere to speak ill; male ill + dicere to say, speak. See Malice, and Diction.]. From Webster's Revised Unabridged Dictionary (", "authority_tier": "reference", "source": "Webster's Revised Unabridged Dictionary (1913), Project Gutenberg eBook #29765 — public domain", "readable": true, "generated": false}, {"id": "card_src_etym_malady", "title": "malady", "shelf": "etymology", "surface": "secular", "snippet": "malady: etymology (Webster 1913) — n.: [F. maladie, fr. malade ill, sick, OF. also, malabde, fr. L. male habitus, i. e., ill-kept, not in good condition. See Malice, and Habit.]. From Webster's Revise", "authority_tier": "reference", "source": "Webster's Revised Unabridged Dictionary (1913), Project Gutenberg eBook #29765 — public domain", "readable": true, "generated": false}, {"id": "card_src_etym_malfeasance", "title": "malfeasance", "shelf": "etymology", "surface": "secular", "snippet": "malfeasance: etymology (Webster 1913) — n.: [F. malfaisance, fr. malfaisant injurious, doing ill; mal ill, evil + faisant doing, p. pr. of faire to do. See Malice, Feasible, and cf. Maleficence.]. Fro", "authority_tier": "reference", "source": "Webster's Revised Unabridged Dictionary (1913), Project Gutenberg eBook #29765 — public domain", "readable": true, "generated": false}, {"id": "card_src_etym_demerit", "title": "demerit", "shelf": "etymology", "surface": "secular", "snippet": "demerit: etymology (Webster 1913) — n.: [F. démérite demerit (in sense 2), OF. demerite demerit (in sense 1), fr. L. demerere to deserve well, LL., to deserve well or ill; de- + merere to deserve. See", "authority_tier": "reference", "source": "Webster's Revised Unabridged Dictionary (1913), Project Gutenberg eBook #29765 — public domain", "readable": true, "generated": false}], "house": {"door": "FIND", "kind": "cards", "trail": "results", "seal": null, "next_step": {"do": "open the top card", "door": "FIND", "tool": "card_get", "params": {"id": "card_theory_bayes_theorem"}}, "ends": "a verdict or a card · the trail · a seal · one next step"}}