{"query": "Forecasting — probability and chaos", "count": 20, "results": [{"id": "card_meteorology_forecasting", "title": "Forecasting — probability and chaos", "shelf": "codex", "surface": "secular", "snippet": "Weather is predicted statistically, and chaos limits how far: small errors grow, so forecasts are probabilities with a horizon of about two weeks.", "authority_tier": "engine_derived", "source": "Narrow Highway — meteorology", "readable": false, "generated": false}, {"id": "card_src_openstax_principles_finance_18_2_forecasting_sales_bc5775a3", "title": "18.2 Forecasting Sales — Principles of Finance", "shelf": "reference", "surface": "secular", "snippet": "18.2\n\nForecasting Sales\n\nLearning Outcomes\n\nBy the end of this section, you will be able to:\n\nExplain how sales are the main driver for a financial forecast.\n\nDetermine a past time period to formulate", "authority_tier": "reference", "source": "OpenStax: Principles of Finance (CC-BY 4.0)", "readable": false, "generated": false}, {"id": "card_src_openstax_principles_finance_2e_18_2_forecasting_sales_bc5775a3", "title": "18.2 Forecasting Sales — Principles of Finance 2e", "shelf": "reference", "surface": "secular", "snippet": "18.2\n\nForecasting Sales\n\nLearning Outcomes\n\nBy the end of this section, you will be able to:\n\nExplain how sales are the main driver for a financial forecast.\n\nDetermine a past time period to formulate", "authority_tier": "reference", "source": "OpenStax: Principles of Finance 2e (CC-BY 4.0)", "readable": false, "generated": false}, {"id": "card_src_pron_forecasting", "title": "forecasting", "shelf": "pronunciation", "surface": "secular", "snippet": "forecasting: pronounced (ARPABET) F AO1 R K AE2 S T IH0 NG. From the CMU Pronouncing Dictionary — the standard machine-readable pronunciations of North American English.", "authority_tier": "reference", "source": "CMU Pronouncing Dictionary (cmudict) — BSD-2-Clause, Carnegie Mellon", "readable": false, "generated": false}, {"id": "card_src_openstax_principles_finance_2e_why_it_matters_615639c9", "title": "Why It Matters — Principles of Finance 2e", "shelf": "reference", "surface": "secular", "snippet": "Figure\n18.1\n\nForecasts are an important financial tool. (credit: modification of “Red Post-It Label, Calculator and Ballpen” by photosteve101/flickr, CC BY 2.0)\n\nChapter Outline\n\n18.1\n\nThe Importance ", "authority_tier": "reference", "source": "OpenStax: Principles of Finance 2e (CC-BY 4.0)", "readable": false, "generated": false}, {"id": "card_src_openstax_principles_finance_why_it_matters_615639c9", "title": "Why It Matters — Principles of Finance", "shelf": "reference", "surface": "secular", "snippet": "Figure\n18.1\n\nForecasts are an important financial tool. (credit: modification of “Red Post-It Label, Calculator and Ballpen” by photosteve101/flickr, CC BY 2.0)\n\nChapter Outline\n\n18.1\n\nThe Importance ", "authority_tier": "reference", "source": "OpenStax: Principles of Finance (CC-BY 4.0)", "readable": false, "generated": false}, {"id": "card_src_openstax_principles_finance_2e_summary_f0b2d26e", "title": "Summary — Principles of Finance 2e", "shelf": "reference", "surface": "secular", "snippet": "Summary\n\n18.1\n\nThe Importance of Forecasting\n\nForecasting financial statements is important to different users for different reasons. In finance, it’s most important for assessing the value of future ", "authority_tier": "reference", "source": "OpenStax: Principles of Finance 2e (CC-BY 4.0)", "readable": false, "generated": false}, {"id": "card_src_openstax_principles_finance_summary_da6f958f", "title": "Summary — Principles of Finance", "shelf": "reference", "surface": "secular", "snippet": "Summary\n\n18.1\n\nThe Importance of Forecasting\n\nForecasting financial statements is important to different users for different reasons. In finance, it’s most important for assessing the value of future ", "authority_tier": "reference", "source": "OpenStax: Principles of Finance (CC-BY 4.0)", "readable": false, "generated": false}, {"id": "card_src_openstax_principles_finance_18_5_forecasting_cash_flow_and_assessing_5ed7943a", "title": "18.5 Forecasting Cash Flow and Assessing the Value of Growth — Principles of Finance", "shelf": "reference", "surface": "secular", "snippet": "18.5\n\nForecasting Cash Flow and Assessing the Value of Growth\n\nLearning Outcomes\n\nBy the end of this section, you will be able to:\n\nGenerate a cash flow forecast.\n\nAssess a cash flow forecast to deter", "authority_tier": "reference", "source": "OpenStax: Principles of Finance (CC-BY 4.0)", "readable": false, "generated": false}, {"id": "card_src_openstax_principles_finance_2e_18_5_forecasting_cash_flow_and_assessing_5ed7943a", "title": "18.5 Forecasting Cash Flow and Assessing the Value of Growth — Principles of Finance 2e", "shelf": "reference", "surface": "secular", "snippet": "18.5\n\nForecasting Cash Flow and Assessing the Value of Growth\n\nLearning Outcomes\n\nBy the end of this section, you will be able to:\n\nGenerate a cash flow forecast.\n\nAssess a cash flow forecast to deter", "authority_tier": "reference", "source": "OpenStax: Principles of Finance 2e (CC-BY 4.0)", "readable": false, "generated": false}, {"id": "card_src_book_48674", "title": "A Hundred Years Hence: The Expectations of an Optimist — T. Baron Russell", "shelf": "gutenberg", "surface": "secular", "snippet": "A Hundred Years Hence: The Expectations of an Optimist, by T. Baron Russell. Subjects: Twentieth century -- Forecasts; Forecasting. Read the full text (public domain): https://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks", "authority_tier": "reference", "source": "Project Gutenberg (public domain)", "readable": true, "generated": false}, {"id": "card_floor_meteorology", "title": "Meteorology — the atmosphere as a heat engine", "shelf": "codex", "surface": "secular", "snippet": "Air rising cools at the lapse rate; the rotating planet organizes winds; forecasts are probabilities bounded by chaos. Three pillars rest on thermodynamics (the heat engine), earth science (the rotati", "authority_tier": "engine_derived", "source": "Narrow Highway — meteorology", "readable": false, "generated": false}, {"id": "card_src_word_forecasting", "title": "forecasting", "shelf": "dictionary", "surface": "secular", "snippet": "forecasting: (noun) a statement made about the future — syn: prediction, foretelling, prognostication", "authority_tier": "reference", "source": "WordNet 3.0, Princeton University (WordNet License)", "readable": false, "generated": false}, {"id": "card_src_word_weather_forecasting", "title": "weather forecasting", "shelf": "dictionary", "surface": "secular", "snippet": "weather forecasting: (noun) predicting what the weather will be — syn: meteorology", "authority_tier": "reference", "source": "WordNet 3.0, Princeton University (WordNet License)", "readable": false, "generated": false}, {"id": "card_src_openstax_principles_finance_18_4_generating_the_complete_forecast_7aa61a82", "title": "18.4 Generating the Complete Forecast — Principles of Finance", "shelf": "reference", "surface": "secular", "snippet": "18.4\n\nGenerating the Complete Forecast\n\nLearning Outcomes\n\nBy the end of this section, you will be able to:\n\nGenerate a forecasted income statement that incorporates pertinent sales, functional, and p", "authority_tier": "reference", "source": "OpenStax: Principles of Finance (CC-BY 4.0)", "readable": false, "generated": false}, {"id": "card_src_openstax_principles_finance_2e_18_4_generating_the_complete_forecast_7aa61a82", "title": "18.4 Generating the Complete Forecast — Principles of Finance 2e", "shelf": "reference", "surface": "secular", "snippet": "18.4\n\nGenerating the Complete Forecast\n\nLearning Outcomes\n\nBy the end of this section, you will be able to:\n\nGenerate a forecasted income statement that incorporates pertinent sales, functional, and p", "authority_tier": "reference", "source": "OpenStax: Principles of Finance 2e (CC-BY 4.0)", "readable": false, "generated": false}, {"id": "card_theory_kolmogorov_probability_axioms", "title": "Kolmogorov probability axioms", "shelf": "theories", "surface": "secular", "snippet": "Kolmogorov probability axioms — an engine domain that can touch it: probability. Calibration: seals. Three axioms (1933): probabilities are non-negative, the whole sample space has probability 1, and ", "authority_tier": "reference", "source": "The Theory Assay — calibrated, not judged (docs/THEORY_CATALOG.md)", "readable": false, "generated": false}, {"id": "card_theory_null_hypothesis_significance_testing", "title": "Null-hypothesis significance testing (Fisher / Neyman–Pearson)", "shelf": "theories", "surface": "secular", "snippet": "Null-hypothesis significance testing (Fisher / Neyman–Pearson) — an engine domain that can touch it: statistics. Calibration: seals — a p-value recomputes exactly. Assume the null hypothesis, compute ", "authority_tier": "reference", "source": "The Theory Assay — calibrated, not judged (docs/THEORY_CATALOG.md)", "readable": false, "generated": false}, {"id": "card_theory_win_probability_models", "title": "Win-probability & expected-value models", "shelf": "theories", "surface": "secular", "snippet": "Win-probability & expected-value models — an engine domain that can touch it: sports_analytics. Calibration: partial — specific relations verify; the theory as a whole is not a sealable computation. E", "authority_tier": "reference", "source": "The Theory Assay — calibrated, not judged (lone-domain seeding)", "readable": false, "generated": false}, {"id": "card_theory_bayes_theorem", "title": "Bayes' theorem", "shelf": "theories", "surface": "secular", "snippet": "Bayes' theorem — an engine domain that can touch it: probability. Calibration: seals. P(H|E) = P(E|H)·P(H) / P(E). How to update a belief when evidence arrives: posterior ∝ likelihood × prior. A trivi", "authority_tier": "reference", "source": "The Theory Assay — calibrated, not judged (docs/THEORY_CATALOG.md)", "readable": false, "generated": false}], "house": {"door": "FIND", "kind": "cards", "trail": "results", "seal": null, "next_step": {"do": "open the top card", "door": "FIND", "tool": "card_get", "params": {"id": "card_meteorology_forecasting"}}, "ends": "a verdict or a card · the trail · a seal · one next step"}}