The Mechanism · Gated-generation receipt

gen-in-3-4-sentences-explain-the-efficient-market-hypothesis-sta-fd5b

stable pending witness
2026-05-29 03:33:36 UTC · anthropic/claude-sonnet-4-5

Prompt

In 3-4 sentences, explain the efficient market hypothesis. State any key formula.
81 chars

Generation

The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) states that asset prices fully reflect all available information, making it impossible to consistently achieve returns above average market returns on a risk-adjusted basis. In an efficient market, stocks always trade at their fair value, so investors cannot purchase undervalued stocks or sell stocks for inflated prices. The hypothesis is often expressed through the random walk model: **P(t+1) = P(t) + ε**, where P(t) is the price at time t and ε is a random error term with zero expected value, indicating that future price changes are unpredictable based on past information.
26 tokens in · 136 tokens out · 8039 ms · $0.0021

The four gates

RED
pass
no disqualifying input patterns detected
FLOOR
pass
output above protective minimum; no mismatches
WAY
pass
no declared way_path (Way check NA); no coercion language
EXECUTION
deferred
no witnesses available (Witness Roll not yet constituted)

Verifier results

scripture_anchors NOT_APPLICABLE
0 Scripture citation(s) extracted
theology_doctrine NOT_APPLICABLE
no doctrine keyword patterns detected

Metrics

Total latency
8045.0 ms
Base LLM
8038.9 ms
Verifiers
0.3 ms
Gates
0.1 ms
Cost
$0.0021

Trail

03:33:36 received prompt_chars=81 verifiers=['scripture_anchors', 'theology_doctrine']
03:33:36 red_gate decision=pass reason=no disqualifying input patterns detected
03:33:44 base_llm_call model=anthropic/claude-sonnet-4-5 tokens_in=26 tokens_out=136 latency_ms=8038.9 cost_usd=0.0021
03:33:44 verifier:scripture_anchors verdict=NOT_APPLICABLE summary=0 Scripture citation(s) extracted
03:33:44 verifier:theology_doctrine verdict=NOT_APPLICABLE summary=no doctrine keyword patterns detected
03:33:44 floor_gate decision=pass reason=output above protective minimum; no mismatches
03:33:44 way_gate decision=pass reason=no declared way_path (Way check NA); no coercion language
03:33:44 execution_gate decision=deferred reason=no witnesses available (Witness Roll not yet constituted)
03:33:44 signed hash_algo=sha256 hash=sha256:577293c7bc99d9db18d27bbd72c6f1ab9b99b141ebfe539ca5315c7ac73e8e39

Content hash

sha256:577293c7bc99d9db18d27bbd72c6f1ab9b99b141ebfe539ca5315c7ac73e8e39

SHA256 over the canonical JSON (excluding this field). Tamper detection. Ed25519 signing planned for v2 once the operator’s signing key is provisioned on disk.

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