The Mechanism · Gated-generation receipt

gen-in-3-4-sentences-explain-expected-goals-xg-in-soccer-state-a-7968

stable pending witness
2026-05-29 05:28:34 UTC · anthropic/claude-sonnet-4-5

Prompt

In 3-4 sentences, explain expected goals (xG) in soccer. State any key formula.
79 chars

Generation

Expected Goals (xG) is a statistical metric that quantifies the quality of a scoring chance in soccer by estimating the probability that a shot will result in a goal. It considers factors like shot location, angle, body part used, assist type, and defensive pressure to assign each shot a value between 0 and 1, where higher values indicate better scoring opportunities. **Key formula**: xG = P(goal | shot characteristics), calculated using logistic regression: xG = 1 / (1 + e^-(β₀ + β₁x₁ + β₂x₂ + ... + βₙxₙ)) where x₁, x₂, ..., xₙ represent factors like distance, angle, and shot type, with coefficients derived from thousands of historical shots.
30 tokens in · 183 tokens out · 5297 ms · $0.0028

The four gates

RED
pass
no disqualifying input patterns detected
FLOOR
pass
output above protective minimum; no mismatches
WAY
pass
no declared way_path (Way check NA); no coercion language
EXECUTION
deferred
no witnesses available (Witness Roll not yet constituted)

Verifier results

scripture_anchors NOT_APPLICABLE
0 Scripture citation(s) extracted
theology_doctrine NOT_APPLICABLE
no doctrine keyword patterns detected

Metrics

Total latency
5305.4 ms
Base LLM
5297.0 ms
Verifiers
0.2 ms
Gates
0.0 ms
Cost
$0.0028

Trail

05:28:34 received prompt_chars=79 verifiers=['scripture_anchors', 'theology_doctrine']
05:28:34 red_gate decision=pass reason=no disqualifying input patterns detected
05:28:40 base_llm_call model=anthropic/claude-sonnet-4-5 tokens_in=30 tokens_out=183 latency_ms=5297.0 cost_usd=0.0028
05:28:40 verifier:scripture_anchors verdict=NOT_APPLICABLE summary=0 Scripture citation(s) extracted
05:28:40 verifier:theology_doctrine verdict=NOT_APPLICABLE summary=no doctrine keyword patterns detected
05:28:40 floor_gate decision=pass reason=output above protective minimum; no mismatches
05:28:40 way_gate decision=pass reason=no declared way_path (Way check NA); no coercion language
05:28:40 execution_gate decision=deferred reason=no witnesses available (Witness Roll not yet constituted)
05:28:40 signed hash_algo=sha256 hash=sha256:620a51a7cda1fbb5132d2103c301c0bb4384223bdba0638205b6d27e4db2319c

Content hash

sha256:620a51a7cda1fbb5132d2103c301c0bb4384223bdba0638205b6d27e4db2319c

SHA256 over the canonical JSON (excluding this field). Tamper detection. Ed25519 signing planned for v2 once the operator’s signing key is provisioned on disk.

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