The Mechanism · Gated-generation receipt

gen-explain-win-probability-models-as-you-would-to-a-capable-stu-ecf0

stable pending witness
2026-05-29 02:39:08 UTC · anthropic/claude-sonnet-4-5

Prompt

Explain win probability models as you would to a capable student, in 3-4 sentences.
83 chars

Generation

A win probability model estimates the likelihood that a team will win a game at any given moment based on the current game situation—like the score, time remaining, field position, and possession. It works by analyzing thousands of historical games to find patterns: for example, teams leading by 10 points with 5 minutes left have won 85% of the time in similar situations. The model continuously updates throughout the game as circumstances change, so a team's win probability might jump from 30% to 65% after scoring a touchdown. These models are useful for understanding how impactful each play or decision is, since you can measure how much a single event shifts the win probability.
28 tokens in · 143 tokens out · 4647 ms · $0.0022

The four gates

RED
pass
no disqualifying input patterns detected
FLOOR
pass
output above protective minimum; no mismatches
WAY
pass
no declared way_path (Way check NA); no coercion language
EXECUTION
deferred
no witnesses available (Witness Roll not yet constituted)

Verifier results

scripture_anchors NOT_APPLICABLE
0 Scripture citation(s) extracted
theology_doctrine NOT_APPLICABLE
no doctrine keyword patterns detected

Metrics

Total latency
4653.9 ms
Base LLM
4646.7 ms
Verifiers
0.2 ms
Gates
0.0 ms
Cost
$0.0022

Trail

02:39:08 received prompt_chars=83 verifiers=['scripture_anchors', 'theology_doctrine']
02:39:08 red_gate decision=pass reason=no disqualifying input patterns detected
02:39:12 base_llm_call model=anthropic/claude-sonnet-4-5 tokens_in=28 tokens_out=143 latency_ms=4646.7 cost_usd=0.0022
02:39:12 verifier:scripture_anchors verdict=NOT_APPLICABLE summary=0 Scripture citation(s) extracted
02:39:12 verifier:theology_doctrine verdict=NOT_APPLICABLE summary=no doctrine keyword patterns detected
02:39:12 floor_gate decision=pass reason=output above protective minimum; no mismatches
02:39:12 way_gate decision=pass reason=no declared way_path (Way check NA); no coercion language
02:39:12 execution_gate decision=deferred reason=no witnesses available (Witness Roll not yet constituted)
02:39:12 signed hash_algo=sha256 hash=sha256:2944fa3c3bf89dacff4099984b8d48392499334a20ee291add6865df97786f0e

Content hash

sha256:2944fa3c3bf89dacff4099984b8d48392499334a20ee291add6865df97786f0e

SHA256 over the canonical JSON (excluding this field). Tamper detection. Ed25519 signing planned for v2 once the operator’s signing key is provisioned on disk.

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