gen-explain-the-hot-hand-fallacy-as-you-would-to-a-capable-stude-e23b

Explain the hot-hand fallacy as you would to a capable student, in 3-4 sentences.

The hot-hand fallacy is the mistaken belief that a person who has experienced success with a random event has a greater chance of further success in additional attempts. For example, if a basketball player makes several shots in a row, people often believe they've got a "hot hand" and are more likely to make the next shot—when statistically, each shot is an independent event with roughly the same probability. This fallacy occurs because our brains are wired to see patterns even in random sequences, leading us to overestimate the likelihood of streaks continuing. It's called a fallacy because, in truly random scenarios, past successes don't actually influence future outcomes.