The Mechanism · Gated-generation receipt

gen-explain-expected-goals-xg-in-soccer-as-you-would-to-a-capabl-ac82

hold
2026-05-29 03:17:52 UTC · anthropic/claude-sonnet-4-5

Prompt

Explain expected goals (xG) in soccer as you would to a capable student, in 3-4 sentences.
90 chars

Generation

Expected Goals (xG) is a statistical metric that measures the quality of a scoring chance by assigning it a value between 0 and 1, representing the probability that it will result in a goal. For example, a penalty kick might have an xG of 0.8 (80% chance of scoring), while a difficult shot from a tight angle might only be 0.05. The model calculates these probabilities by analyzing thousands of similar historical shots, considering factors like distance from goal, angle, type of assist, and defensive pressure. By adding up all the xG values from a team's chances in a match, you can assess whether they created better opportunities than their opponent, regardless of the actual score.
33 tokens in · 153 tokens out · 5347 ms · $0.0024

The four gates

RED
pass
no disqualifying input patterns detected
FLOOR
pass
output above protective minimum; no mismatches
WAY
wait
output contains coercion language: ['regardless of']
EXECUTION
deferred
no witnesses available (Witness Roll not yet constituted)

Verifier results

scripture_anchors NOT_APPLICABLE
0 Scripture citation(s) extracted
theology_doctrine NOT_APPLICABLE
no doctrine keyword patterns detected

Metrics

Total latency
5354.6 ms
Base LLM
5347.4 ms
Verifiers
0.2 ms
Gates
0.1 ms
Cost
$0.0024

Trail

03:17:52 received prompt_chars=90 verifiers=['scripture_anchors', 'theology_doctrine']
03:17:52 red_gate decision=pass reason=no disqualifying input patterns detected
03:17:58 base_llm_call model=anthropic/claude-sonnet-4-5 tokens_in=33 tokens_out=153 latency_ms=5347.4 cost_usd=0.0024
03:17:58 verifier:scripture_anchors verdict=NOT_APPLICABLE summary=0 Scripture citation(s) extracted
03:17:58 verifier:theology_doctrine verdict=NOT_APPLICABLE summary=no doctrine keyword patterns detected
03:17:58 floor_gate decision=pass reason=output above protective minimum; no mismatches
03:17:58 way_gate decision=wait reason=output contains coercion language: ['regardless of']
03:17:58 execution_gate decision=deferred reason=no witnesses available (Witness Roll not yet constituted)
03:17:58 signed hash_algo=sha256 hash=sha256:721ae7eab0d6d31b0fe5e6793a6c7ee9156217f385d773404584b24e02145cb0

Content hash

sha256:721ae7eab0d6d31b0fe5e6793a6c7ee9156217f385d773404584b24e02145cb0

SHA256 over the canonical JSON (excluding this field). Tamper detection. Ed25519 signing planned for v2 once the operator’s signing key is provisioned on disk.

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