gen-define-the-hot-hand-fallacy-and-give-one-short-worked-exampl-5a46

Define the hot-hand fallacy and give one short worked example.

# Hot-Hand Fallacy The **hot-hand fallacy** is the mistaken belief that a person who has experienced success with a random event has a greater chance of further success in additional attempts. It's the idea that success "feeds on itself" or that someone can be "on a streak" when outcomes are actually independent. ## Worked Example **Scenario**: A basketball player has made 5 free throws in a row. Fans believe she has a "hot hand" and is now more likely to make the 6th shot. **The Fallacy**: If her actual free throw percentage is 70%, then: - Probability of making the 6th shot = **70%** (same as always) The previous 5 makes don't change this probability. Each free throw is an independent event. **Why people fall for it**: Our brains are pattern-seeking and struggle to accept that random sequences often contain "streaks" by pure chance. A sequence like MMMMMSMMS *feels* less random than MSMSMMSMS, but both are equally likely to occur randomly.