The Mechanism · Gated-generation receipt

gen-define-survival-analysis-of-careers-and-give-one-short-worke-08de

stable pending witness
2026-05-29 05:31:32 UTC · anthropic/claude-sonnet-4-5

Prompt

Define survival analysis of careers and give one short worked example.
70 chars

Generation

# Survival Analysis of Careers ## Definition **Survival analysis of careers** is a statistical method that examines the duration until a specific career-related event occurs (e.g., job termination, promotion, career change, or retirement). It analyzes: - How long individuals "survive" in a particular state (job, position, company) - What factors influence the timing of transitions - The probability of experiencing an event over time Key features: - Handles **censored data** (e.g., employees still working when study ends) - Uses techniques like Kaplan-Meier curves, Cox proportional hazards models - Provides hazard rates and median survival times --- ## Worked Example **Research Question:** What is the probability of new hires surviving their first year at a tech company? **Data:** 10 employees hired on Jan 1st - Employees who left (with months until departure): 3, 5, 7, 11 - Employees still employed at 12 months: 6 (censored) **Kaplan-Meier Survival Estimates:** | Time (months) | Events | At Risk | Survival Probability | |---------------|--------|---------|---------------------| | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1.00 (100%) | | 3 | 1 | 10 | 0.90 (90%) | | 5 | 1 | 9 | 0.80 (80%) | | 7 | 1 | 8 | 0.70 (70%) | | 11 | 1 | 7 | 0.60 (60%) | **Interpretation:** The probability of a new hire surviving their first year is **60%**, with most departures occurring in the first 7 months.
19 tokens in · 428 tokens out · 10170 ms · $0.0065

The four gates

RED
pass
no disqualifying input patterns detected
FLOOR
pass
output above protective minimum; no mismatches
WAY
pass
no declared way_path (Way check NA); no coercion language
EXECUTION
deferred
no witnesses available (Witness Roll not yet constituted)

Verifier results

scripture_anchors NOT_APPLICABLE
0 Scripture citation(s) extracted
theology_doctrine NOT_APPLICABLE
no doctrine keyword patterns detected

Metrics

Total latency
10177.4 ms
Base LLM
10169.9 ms
Verifiers
0.5 ms
Gates
0.1 ms
Cost
$0.0065

Trail

05:31:32 received prompt_chars=70 verifiers=['scripture_anchors', 'theology_doctrine']
05:31:32 red_gate decision=pass reason=no disqualifying input patterns detected
05:31:42 base_llm_call model=anthropic/claude-sonnet-4-5 tokens_in=19 tokens_out=428 latency_ms=10169.9 cost_usd=0.0065
05:31:42 verifier:scripture_anchors verdict=NOT_APPLICABLE summary=0 Scripture citation(s) extracted
05:31:42 verifier:theology_doctrine verdict=NOT_APPLICABLE summary=no doctrine keyword patterns detected
05:31:42 floor_gate decision=pass reason=output above protective minimum; no mismatches
05:31:42 way_gate decision=pass reason=no declared way_path (Way check NA); no coercion language
05:31:42 execution_gate decision=deferred reason=no witnesses available (Witness Roll not yet constituted)
05:31:42 signed hash_algo=sha256 hash=sha256:462fc8b1945f97cbbbfcb54c9d49313dc8b71f4fd568d3dfafe22ff204b81d32

Content hash

sha256:462fc8b1945f97cbbbfcb54c9d49313dc8b71f4fd568d3dfafe22ff204b81d32

SHA256 over the canonical JSON (excluding this field). Tamper detection. Ed25519 signing planned for v2 once the operator’s signing key is provisioned on disk.

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