The Mechanism · Gated-generation receipt

gen-define-leverage-index-in-close-games-and-give-one-short-work-46bd

stable pending witness
2026-05-29 05:46:24 UTC · anthropic/claude-sonnet-4-5

Prompt

Define leverage index in close games and give one short worked example.
71 chars

Generation

# Leverage Index in Close Games **Definition:** Leverage Index (LI) measures the criticality of a game situation based on how much a play outcome could swing the probability of winning. It's scaled so that 1.0 represents average leverage across all situations. High leverage occurs when: - The score is close - Runners are on base - It's late in the game - The count matters **Formula basis:** LI compares the range of possible win probability changes from that situation. ## Worked Example **Situation:** Bottom of the 8th inning, home team down by 1 run, runner on 2nd base, 1 out. **Current win probability:** ~35% **Possible outcomes:** - Single scores runner → Win probability jumps to ~75% - Strikeout → Win probability drops to ~25% - Range of swing: 50 percentage points Compare to: - **Average situation swing:** ~15 percentage points - **This situation's LI:** 50/15 ≈ **3.3** This means the at-bat is about **3.3 times more important** than an average plate appearance. The highest leverage typically occurs in tie games, late innings, with runners on base—exactly when managers bring in their closers.
20 tokens in · 296 tokens out · 8743 ms · $0.0045

The four gates

RED
pass
no disqualifying input patterns detected
FLOOR
pass
output above protective minimum; no mismatches
WAY
pass
no declared way_path (Way check NA); no coercion language
EXECUTION
deferred
no witnesses available (Witness Roll not yet constituted)

Verifier results

scripture_anchors NOT_APPLICABLE
0 Scripture citation(s) extracted
theology_doctrine NOT_APPLICABLE
no doctrine keyword patterns detected

Metrics

Total latency
8754.5 ms
Base LLM
8743.0 ms
Verifiers
0.5 ms
Gates
0.1 ms
Cost
$0.0045

Trail

05:46:24 received prompt_chars=71 verifiers=['scripture_anchors', 'theology_doctrine']
05:46:24 red_gate decision=pass reason=no disqualifying input patterns detected
05:46:33 base_llm_call model=anthropic/claude-sonnet-4-5 tokens_in=20 tokens_out=296 latency_ms=8743.0 cost_usd=0.0045
05:46:33 verifier:scripture_anchors verdict=NOT_APPLICABLE summary=0 Scripture citation(s) extracted
05:46:33 verifier:theology_doctrine verdict=NOT_APPLICABLE summary=no doctrine keyword patterns detected
05:46:33 floor_gate decision=pass reason=output above protective minimum; no mismatches
05:46:33 way_gate decision=pass reason=no declared way_path (Way check NA); no coercion language
05:46:33 execution_gate decision=deferred reason=no witnesses available (Witness Roll not yet constituted)
05:46:33 signed hash_algo=sha256 hash=sha256:78b5caa2af9186c8720291ba7e64bff6c6c364864677ab98223c8d37e579850d

Content hash

sha256:78b5caa2af9186c8720291ba7e64bff6c6c364864677ab98223c8d37e579850d

SHA256 over the canonical JSON (excluding this field). Tamper detection. Ed25519 signing planned for v2 once the operator’s signing key is provisioned on disk.

Bring another teaching · Run a discernment