The Mechanism · Gated-generation receipt

gen-define-home-field-advantage-quantified-and-give-one-short-wo-40fd

stable pending witness
2026-05-29 07:19:33 UTC · anthropic/claude-sonnet-4-5

Prompt

Define home-field advantage quantified and give one short worked example.
73 chars

Generation

# Home-Field Advantage Quantified **Definition**: Home-field advantage is the measurable increase in winning probability (or expected point differential) that a team gains when playing at their home venue compared to a neutral site. It's typically expressed as: - **Win probability boost**: The percentage point increase in win chance - **Point spread equivalent**: The average point differential favoring the home team ## Short Worked Example **NFL Home-Field Advantage:** Suppose historical data shows: - Home teams win 57% of games - Away teams win 43% of games **Calculation:** - If games were neutral (no advantage), each team would win 50% - Home-field advantage = 57% - 50% = **+7 percentage points** In point spread terms, this typically translates to approximately **3 points** in the NFL. **Application**: If Team A is 3-point better than Team B on neutral field: - Team A at home vs Team B: Team A favored by 3 + 3 = **6 points** - Team A at Team B: Team A favored by 3 - 3 = **0 points** (even game) This quantification allows bookmakers to set lines and analysts to make predictions accounting for venue effects.
21 tokens in · 292 tokens out · 9258 ms · $0.0044

The four gates

RED
pass
no disqualifying input patterns detected
FLOOR
pass
output above protective minimum; no mismatches
WAY
pass
no declared way_path (Way check NA); no coercion language
EXECUTION
deferred
no witnesses available (Witness Roll not yet constituted)

Verifier results

scripture_anchors NOT_APPLICABLE
0 Scripture citation(s) extracted
theology_doctrine NOT_APPLICABLE
no doctrine keyword patterns detected

Metrics

Total latency
9264.5 ms
Base LLM
9257.6 ms
Verifiers
0.3 ms
Gates
0.0 ms
Cost
$0.0044

Trail

07:19:33 received prompt_chars=73 verifiers=['scripture_anchors', 'theology_doctrine']
07:19:33 red_gate decision=pass reason=no disqualifying input patterns detected
07:19:42 base_llm_call model=anthropic/claude-sonnet-4-5 tokens_in=21 tokens_out=292 latency_ms=9257.6 cost_usd=0.0044
07:19:42 verifier:scripture_anchors verdict=NOT_APPLICABLE summary=0 Scripture citation(s) extracted
07:19:42 verifier:theology_doctrine verdict=NOT_APPLICABLE summary=no doctrine keyword patterns detected
07:19:42 floor_gate decision=pass reason=output above protective minimum; no mismatches
07:19:42 way_gate decision=pass reason=no declared way_path (Way check NA); no coercion language
07:19:42 execution_gate decision=deferred reason=no witnesses available (Witness Roll not yet constituted)
07:19:42 signed hash_algo=sha256 hash=sha256:702d01547ccca1ec68d65463f60a3d37e130773c15e97a19c629ede879221834

Content hash

sha256:702d01547ccca1ec68d65463f60a3d37e130773c15e97a19c629ede879221834

SHA256 over the canonical JSON (excluding this field). Tamper detection. Ed25519 signing planned for v2 once the operator’s signing key is provisioned on disk.

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