{"id": "card_v_5b4a7cb1d159", "kind": "verified", "title": "P(ill | +) = (.9·.01)/(.9·.01 + .05·.99) ≈ 0.154", "body": "Verdict: HOLDS.\n• probability.bayes: P(A|B) = 0.153846\nSealed and independently re-checkable: https://narrowhighway.com/s/92e3af57fda402f643d83006e4074c33bcb7c6551b86c2d14d6882ba61c17f67", "source": {"label": "Verified by the engine — probability", "url": "https://narrowhighway.com/s/92e3af57fda402f643d83006e4074c33bcb7c6551b86c2d14d6882ba61c17f67", "ref": "", "domain": "probability", "authority_tier": "engine"}, "shelf": "probability", "box": "verified", "bands": ["verified", "probability", "HOLDS"], "connections": [{"to_card_id": "card_k_spine_created_order", "relationship": "part_of", "evidence": "a verified seed of the created order (probability)"}, {"to_card_id": "card_works_probability", "relationship": "demonstrates", "evidence": "A worked demonstration in the same field (probability)."}, {"to_card_id": "card_works_bayes", "relationship": "demonstrates", "evidence": "A worked demonstration in the same field (probability)."}], "author": "engine", "created_at": 1784894214.5594397, "updated_at": 1784894214.5594401, "visibility": "public", "lifecycle_stage": "public", "volatility": "durable", "surface": "secular", "generated": false, "presentation": {"glyph": "•", "kind_label": "verified", "by": "Verified by the engine — probability", "authority": "engine", "posted": "1 month ago", "standing": "", "link": {"url": "https://narrowhighway.com/s/92e3af57fda402f643d83006e4074c33bcb7c6551b86c2d14d6882ba61c17f67", "host": "narrowhighway.com", "provider": "", "titled": "P(ill | +) = (.9·.01)/(.9·.01 + .05·.99) ≈ 0.154", "waybill_line": "", "reach": "", "embed": ""}}, "neighbors": [{"id": "card_k_spine_created_order", "title": "The created order — the science of the floor", "relationship": "part of", "why": "a verified seed of the created order (probability)", "href": "/card/card_k_spine_created_order", "resolved": true}, {"id": "card_works_probability", "title": "Ten fair coins: the average and a particular outcome", "relationship": "demonstrates", "why": "A worked demonstration in the same field (probability).", "href": "/card/card_works_probability", "resolved": true}, {"id": "card_works_bayes", "title": "The base rate a doctor must not forget", "relationship": "demonstrates", "why": "A worked demonstration in the same field (probability).", "href": "/card/card_works_bayes", "resolved": true}]}