{"id": "card_n_ec6dc6d5b92f", "kind": "note", "title": "A parable — Regression mean", "body": "A man was called lucky, for the dice fell well for him three nights in a row. He believed it, and bet his house on the fourth. The dice did not know they had favored him, and on the fourth night they remembered no one.\n\nAsk yourself: Are you trusting a pattern, or the noise that wears a pattern's clothes?\n\nRED — be honest about what is true of you and what was true of three nights.\n\n(A Narrow Highway original teaching parable — not a parable of Jesus; a made story that carries a true edge.)", "source": {"label": "Narrow Highway — original parable", "url": "", "ref": "almanac_sports_analytics_regression_to_mean", "authority_tier": "operator"}, "shelf": "codex", "box": "parables", "bands": ["parable", "original", "witness", "teaching", "information_encoding", "RED"], "connections": [], "author": "operator", "created_at": "2026-07-10T21:00:05.284658+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-07-10T21:00:05.284658+00:00", "visibility": "public", "lifecycle_stage": "public", "volatility": "permanent", "surface": "witness", "metrics": {"paperclips_count": 0, "helpful_count": 0, "not_helpful_count": 0, "cite_count": 0, "walks_through_count": 0, "flagged_count": 0}, "source_hash": "8040997f999aac45eb6fa3f9a9b99425818535cfce243751aafd1b15f1f40fc1"}